Pep Guardiola entered the grand Bernabeu Stadium, aware that Manchester City had to defy both the odds and reason in a venue known for reserving its miracles for Real Madrid. Having experienced a full range of emotions in this iconic arena, Guardiola has faced it during his time with Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City in the Champions League.
On Wednesday, he will again stand opposite his long-time rival and friend, Real Madrid’s Carlo Ancelotti, beneath the towering stands, knowing that a victory here would be one of his greatest accomplishments.
Guardiola has given City just a “1%” chance of overcoming a 3-2 deficit from the first leg to reach the last 16. However, local sentiment in Madrid suggests that Guardiola’s optimism might not be misplaced.
When addressing the media at the Bernabeu, a place once hostile to him during his Barcelona days, Guardiola’s message was clear: “We have to play nearly the perfect game. We need to attack and score goals. That’s the plan.” He emphasized that City must play with bravery and avoid regrets, stating, “We must be ourselves and play to win. It may not be enough, but we have to show courage and play our best.”
Opta’s statistics give City a more optimistic 19.8% chance, but these numbers must be viewed through the lens of Real Madrid’s rich history and the club’s ability to rise to the occasion in crucial moments.
Guardiola’s record against Real with City is mixed. While he secured a win in the 2020 last 16, the most painful memory came two years later when City, leading by two goals in the semi-final, saw Real’s Rodrygo score twice late, with Karim Benzema’s penalty in injury time sealing City’s fate.
In 2023, Guardiola won his third Champions League title, after victories with Barcelona in 2009 and 2011, as City defeated Real 5-1 on aggregate in the semi-finals. Yet, the Spanish giants triumphed over City on penalties last season.
Guardiola reflected, “I have great memories here—some good, some bad. We know that in places like this, the pressure is immense, but you have to endure it, just like in Milan, Barcelona, or Anfield. You need to manage those moments.”
Real’s sensational win over City in 2022 is the kind of shock Guardiola hopes to reverse, but he faces a depleted squad that has lost its domestic dominance after a record four consecutive Premier League titles and now risks an early exit from the Champions League for the first time in 12 years.
Ancelotti, the savvy veteran, was quick to dismiss Guardiola’s talk of percentages when speaking in Madrid on Tuesday, stating, “He doesn’t really believe that. We don’t think we have a 99% chance. We have a small advantage, and we need to capitalize on it.”
Guardiola retorted, “For the first time, he didn’t believe me. I always speak honestly, but this time he didn’t trust me.”
City’s path to the last 16 is obstructed by statistics, which highlight why Real are strong favorites after their late surge secured a victory at the Etihad Stadium. It marked the 40th time Real have won the first leg of a European knockout tie away from home, progressing in 37 of the previous 39 instances.
In contrast, City’s defeat in the first leg was their fifth loss in a Champions League knockout tie opener, with the previous four losses resulting in elimination.
Ancelotti, the tournament’s most successful coach with five wins, will face Guardiola for the 10th time in the Champions League, with eight of those encounters being between Real and City. The Italian has won four of their nine meetings, never losing at home, with two victories and two draws.
More recent history shows that City has struggled in away games in the competition, losing their last three to Sporting, Juventus, and Paris Saint-Germain.
However, Guardiola’s morale was boosted by Saturday’s 4-0 victory over Newcastle, which featured a hat-trick from new Egyptian signing Omar Marmoush and two goals from Erling Haaland, including his first-ever goal against Real Madrid in the first leg.
Haaland has been a standout in the Champions League, scoring 49 goals in 48 games. If he scores in Madrid, he’ll become the fastest player to reach 50 goals, at just 24 years and 213 days old.
For Manchester City, this could also be a potential Champions League farewell for key figures like Kevin de Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan, and goalkeeper Ederson, while others, such as Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic, are also in their 30s.
Guardiola remained tight-lipped on the matter, stating, “I’d like to answer, but that will come at the end of the season. We still have a lot to play for: to qualify for the Champions League next season, to stay in this season’s competition, and we still have the FA Cup and the Club World Cup.”
Silva added, “If you’d told me at the start of the season that we’d be in this position in the Champions League and the Premier League, I wouldn’t have believed you. We deserve to be in this complicated situation due to where we finished.”
“We have to believe. We still think things can go our way, but this season is definitely a lesson for the future.”
For Manchester City, that future is now—set against the daunting backdrop of the Bernabeu on Wednesday. And if Guardiola manages to defy the “1%” odds in this footballing cathedral, it will rank as one of the greatest achievements of his career.